Solar Savings and Payback in 2026

Bill offset is not profit

Covering 80 percent of a $200 bill is about $160 a month of electricity you did not buy, before fixed charges and before the loan or the cash you spent.

That is the idea behind the range on our estimate: 70 to 90 percent of the annual bill you enter, reduced if you report shade. The 25-year line is 20 to 25 times the annual figure. It is a multiplication, not a forecast. It ignores rate changes, degradation, maintenance, and the cost of the equipment. We would rather print a boring number than a heroic one.

Fixed customer charges often remain. An export credit below the retail rate means kilowatt-hours you send out are worth less than kilowatt-hours you avoid buying. Net metering is the longer explanation. If your proposal's savings exceed the high end of our range, ask which export price created the gap.

EIA's 2025 state average price is the value we assign to a kilowatt-hour in the illustration. EIA is explicit that this average is not a tariff. Your rate schedule wins.

Payback needs a price

Simple payback years are net dollars you pay, divided by annual dollars you truly offset.

If a system has a $24,000 cash price and it truly offsets $1,600 a year after fixed charges, simple payback is 15 years. Change either input and the years change. Loan interest lengthens the payback. A lower export credit lengthens it. A failing roof that you must replace first lengthens it. None of those inputs live in our calculator, so we do not print a payback year.

Berkeley Lab's medians are a reality check on the price input, not a fill-in for the contract. See solar panel cost. Using the national median with your bill is a homework exercise. Label it that way if you do it.

People sometimes add a home-value bump to make payback look shorter. Older research has found sale-price differences for some homes with owned solar. It is not cash at signing, it is not guaranteed, and it is a bad reason to ignore a high price. We do not add it.

The old 30 percent shortcut

Do not divide the price by 0.7 for a system installed after 2025 and call the result your cost.

Section 25D does not apply to homeowner-owned expenditures made after December 31, 2025. Installation completion is what counts, not the day you paid a deposit. Federal tax credit cites the IRS FAQ and the statute. Carryforwards of a credit that was actually allowed for an earlier installation are a different question, and they are a tax-preparer question.

A lease does not restore that arithmetic. You did not buy the system, so you do not claim the homeowner credit. The monthly payment is the cost that matters, including any escalator.

When the bill offset is more likely to matter

High usage, a usable roof, and a plan to stay are the boring conditions that make the math kinder.

A household using a lot of electricity at a high retail rate has more bill to offset. A household with a $60 bill has very little, and the fixed charge may be most of it. Shade and roof age can erase a promising bill. Is solar worth it puts those conditions in one place.

State pages cover twelve states. They put the EIA price, an approximate sun resource, and the utility name in one place so you can compare. Start with Pennsylvania, California, or Texas, or open the location index.